Atypical warming pattern of strong 2023-24 El Niño boosts global temperatures to new 1.5 °C record
编号:357 稿件编号:413 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2026-03-30 07:31:52 浏览:90次 特邀报告

报告开始:2026年04月27日 10:45 (Asia/Shanghai)

报告时间:15min

所在会议:[S1-15] 专题1.15 热带海气相互作用 » [F33] 专题1.15 热带海气相互作用(4月27日上午)

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摘要
During the 2023-24 El Niño, the July 2023–June 2024 average global mean surface temperature peaked at 1.58 °C above pre-industrial levels, associated with a record 0.36 °C year-over-year rise. Here we use statistical models and a Green’s Function method to explore the causes for this rise. We show that sea surface temperature accounts for ~92% of the interannual warming, highlighting the critical role of El Niño diversity. Unlike typical El Niños, dual tropical Pacific warming centers in 2023-24 and an eastward-extended North Atlantic jet stream synergistically amplified sea surface temperatures across tropical basins, accelerating the pace of global warming. From an energy balance perspective, ocean heat content accumulated during the preceding La Niña and a continuous increase in absorbed shortwave radiation over the ocean drove sea surface temperature rise. Accelerated warming may push the climate system closer to critical tipping points, emphasizing the need for enhanced monitoring, mitigation, and adaptation strategies.
关键字
El Niño
报告人
蒋宁
副研究员 中国气象科学研究院

稿件作者
蒋宁 中国气象科学研究院
祝从文 中国气象科学研究院
McPhadenMichael 美国海洋大气局
HuZeng-Zhen NOAA
连涛 自然资源部第二海洋研究所
周晨 南京大学
ChenDeliang 清华大学
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