How will Tropical Pacific Trends Affect the Future of the Southern Annular Mode?
编号：371
稿件编号：119 访问权限：仅限参会人
更新：2026-03-30 07:31:58 浏览：84次
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报告开始：2026年04月27日 16:24 （Asia/Shanghai）
报告时间：12min
所在会议：[S1-15] 专题1.15 热带海气相互作用 » [F44] 专题1.15 热带海气相互作用（4月27日下午）
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摘要
The Southern Hemisphere extratropical atmospheric circulation has experienced a strong positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Understanding the cause of this change is crucial for projecting future regional climate change. Here, we analyse the contributing factors to the trend in the SAM under both historical and future conditions. We show that the contribution from tropical Pacific climate trends, marked by a La Niña-like trend in recent decades (1979-2014), is comparable in magnitude to the effects of greenhouse gases (GHG) and stratospheric ozone (O3) depletion. The results demonstrate the pivotal role of tropical Pacific trends in the future Southern Hemisphere climate and the need to improve simulations of tropical Pacific climate.
关键字
Tropical Pacific,Southern Annular Mode,Greenhouse gas,ozone
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