Beyond Global Mean Temperature: Increasing Asymmetry of Global Warming in Past and Future Climate Change
编号:575 稿件编号:437 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2026-04-02 11:44:18 浏览:94次 特邀报告

报告开始:2026年04月27日 09:30 (Asia/Shanghai)

报告时间:10min

所在会议:[S3-11] 专题3.11 气候环境与数学 » [F21] 专题3.11 气候环境与数学

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摘要
Global surface warming is recognized for its spatial asymmetry. However, mainstream climate assessments solely rely on average surface temperature change (∆T_mean) as a primary indicator, which is statistically insufficient to characterize such asymmetric patterns. In this presentation, we will move beyond the conventional mean-based framework. We will quantify the long-term change in global warming asymmetry and discuss its mathematical and practical implications for climate impact assessment and mitigation. 
Our findings reveal a significant increase in warming asymmetry since 1900. Among 58 IPCC reference regions, the Arctic Ocean, Northwest North America, and Russian Regions contribute only ~50% of this trend, with other Northern Hemisphere mid-high latitudes accounting for an additional ~30%. Climate models project an emission-dependent nonlinear acceleration of warming asymmetry, with trends under SSP 5-8.5 being approximately 3–8 times greater than those under SSP2-4.5 and SSP1-2.6. Consequently, the global surface temperature change deviates from its original Gaussian distribution toward a highly skewed bimodal distribution. This increasing asymmetry implies a widening "divergence" within the climate system that is dependent on emission levels, including the gap between the ∆T_mean and those observed across the majority of regions. Without rigorous emission reductions, this gap could foster cognitive biases in public awareness toward climate change, undermining public acceptance of climate mitigation policies.
关键字
climate change,global warming,asymmetry,climate projection,climate mitigation
报告人
梁卓轩
副研究员 国防科技大学

稿件作者
梁卓轩 国防科技大学
甘秋莹 中山大学
张邦林 国防科技大学
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