Changes in tropical cyclone translation speed: Multidecadal variability and long-term trends
编号:911 稿件编号:1045 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2026-04-08 20:34:15 浏览:118次 特邀报告

报告开始:2026年04月26日 16:25 (Asia/Shanghai)

报告时间:15min

所在会议:[S1-17] 专题1.17 气候变化驱动的大尺度环流变异与极端天气 » [F3] 专题1.17 气候变化驱动的大尺度环流变异与极端天气

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摘要

Tropical cyclone (TC) translation speed (TCS) over the western North Pacific (WNP) has experienced a long-term decreasing trend. To date, however, little is known about the multidecadal variability of TCS and its possible influence on this trend. This study investigated the multidecadal variability of the WNP TCS and the underlying physical mechanisms. Results show that the WNP TCS presents robust multidecadal variability during the past seven decades, which is dominated by the TCS over the extratropics. Further analysis shows that the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is responsible for the TCS multidecadal variability. AMO positive (negative) phases lead to favorable (unfavorable) large-scale environmental conditions for maintaining TCs over the extratropics, which results in longer (shorter) residence time for TCs having been accelerated by the midlatitude westerlies, thus, leading to higher (lower) TCS. The TCS phase shift strongly offsets its slowdown trend, leading to the inconsistent trends during past decades. This inconsistency may also relate to the influence of extratropical transitioned cyclones without being totally excluded. These cyclones may be inhomogeneously recorded due to the absence of satellite observation before the 1980s. Our results indicate that internal variation such as AMO may dominate TCS low-frequency variations over the past several decades. Previous studies have attributed the inconsistent trends of TCS during different subperiods to data inhomogeneity. This study shows that AMO can modulate the TCS trends in different subperiods with phase shift, thus providing new evidence for the recent controversial TCS slowdown.

关键字
tropical cyclone,translation speed
报告人
郭毅鹏
教授 南京大学

稿件作者
谈哲敏 南京大学
郭毅鹏 南京大学
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